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Post by PapaW on Feb 1, 2005 13:56:38 GMT -5
Well a New month but as yet nothing new to break the flat spell. The High pressure sitting over the UK is slowly disapating but its taking its time about it.
At the moment all I'd expect to see up here over the next fewdays-week is some foot slaping mush.
I'll update mid week.
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Post by PapaW on Feb 2, 2005 13:46:46 GMT -5
At Bloody last we have a break in the high pressure. A big system to the north West is forcast to build and push the current high pressure SE and at the same time send us some swell! The main systems a bit too far north of our swell window but i'd expect to see some low period wrap around. With the winds forcast to remain N-NE we could have some clean waves to ride authough not powerful. But who cares its been over two weeks for most of us without a surf (unless like me you poped over to the east coast  ) Sloppy on Friday the bulk will be about for Sat then a sump and late sunday we will see a little more. Sat looks best. Will update on Friday. |
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Post by PapaW on Feb 4, 2005 5:09:07 GMT -5
Weekend Forcast/Report
Tooday sees the small messy slop as expected witht he wind diretion changing to a brisk SW over night. The weekend however still remains slightly mixed...
Saturday
Through-out the day the winds will remain unsettled swinging round to a NNW by late afternoon. The swell however is not a promising as previously thought. The System to the NW of Ireland has shifted further north than expected and looks like its not going to give us any wrap around till later this week and even then its pretty pants. With the awarkward tide times right now and prettly guttless swell its not worth going out but Sat does look the better day. Mouth and Ceriad wil pick up the swell but its going to be cross onshore untill late evening and by then the local swells forcast to drop right off
Sunday
Pretty crap for sunday really. Authough the winds are nic thee just isnt the swell around to take advantage of the forcast NE-SE winds that are comming in for midday/afternoon.
Gutted once again. - So we're going mountaing boarding.
Next Weeks Prospects
Well its a mixed bag next week. Like I said we won't be seeing and swell wrap around till later in the will. Earlyest Thursday I would expect if the system remains fairly tight over the next few days. But alass the winds will shift to westerlys and mess it all up.
Swell still about on the east coast, fairly steady with off shore winds. Authough not very powerfull I'm sure your all getting very desperate!
Eatherway This sundys trip will be to the mountainboarding centre. see you at 10
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Post by PapaW on Feb 5, 2005 5:49:36 GMT -5
Sat Update;
Had some reports of a supprising cleanish wave down at the mouth thismorning. some of the sets making it up to 3-4ft. Unfortunatly now the tides are wrong and the swell is dropping. But its a gorgous day out there with only a light breeze and blazing sunshine.
Edit - Remeber aboutmoutning boarding on Sunday !
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Post by PapaW on Feb 7, 2005 7:31:06 GMT -5
Nothing about Today and for the next few days but this weekend is looking sweet... I'll put up a propper forcast eather this evening or Tomorrow.
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Post by PapaW on Feb 8, 2005 3:03:13 GMT -5
Slightly bigger again today but still messy with a crappy period. So far it looks le we will see the main swell arrive for late Thursday/Friday morning. With a 7-8sec period this is the best we've seen in weeks.
I'll put up the day by day forcast when the new models have come out as I'm off on a field trip now. Catch ya later.
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Post by PapaW on Feb 8, 2005 12:30:59 GMT -5
Weeks Forcast
At last the flatness is to be broken, the high thats been sat over the UK for the last two weeks has totaly diminished and is now allowing the systems that have been previously trackng to the north of the UK to come at the UK directly... However the current approaching system is still a little too far north of our best swell window but the resulting swells are still promising...
Wednesday
From now onwards we are going to see the swell building as the week progresses. Wed will unfortunatly be much alike Tuesday, smal and mushy onshore, not worth it yet!
Thursday
Now this is the day things change, the charts suggest a fast increse in swell hight up to 7-8ft on the bouy as the current systems outter edge sweeps accross southern ireland producung some low period wind swell. Brisk to strong SW winds for the majority of the day but there is a good chance of a sharp change to east winds for lateafternoon/evening (I'll keep an eye on this as it would be perfect!)
Friday
Friday is pretty much when the ground swell should be commig through on this morning. Its not epic but after the last two weeks the 8-9ft swell with 7-8 seconds on the period clock seems like it is! The wind forcasts suggest the east winds wont last into the morning but will be light and slowly swinging round over the course of the day to a brisk SW by the afternoon.
Weekend Prospects
As I've said the main bulk of the swell will have fully arrived by the weekend and thoese changing winds are set to continue swinging round to a NW over Sat and into Sunday. Ideal for Ceriad! YAY!
The swell is set to peek over sat at approx 10ft with a period between 8-10sec on the bouy so we should see some good sets rolling in over the llyen spots and over Angelsey. but i'd expect these figures to change as we draw closer to the weekend.
I'll update the weekend forcast on Friday.
Meanwhile i'll be doing the usual morning reports each day from now on.
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Post by PapaW on Feb 9, 2005 3:59:48 GMT -5
Webnesday update: Slightly bigger than exected up to 5.5ft 5secs on the bouy currently but still very messy with 20mph SW winds. Personally I'd wait just that little longer till you get in tomorrow/friday (see last post)
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Post by PapaW on Feb 10, 2005 6:58:55 GMT -5
Thursday:
Rock and roll, the swells comming in with a dropping wind by midday today!. I'm expecting light NE to E winds by this evening with a 7-8ft swell on the bouy. Wind return WNW for the duration of the weekend.
I will give a full report for Fri-Sunday tonight whe i get back.
Thursday Update... See next post!
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Post by PapaW on Feb 10, 2005 11:15:26 GMT -5
Weekend ForcastIn true dynamic nature action it seems somthings not been picked up on in the weather charts. I arrived Thursday afternoon to find not a 5mph wind but more like 15, and a west one at that. seas were quite messy and it seems the swell had dropped off somewhat. On return I looked at the history charts and the current charts to see what had happend. According to the bouy data there was a substantial drop in swell hight since i'd left resulting in only 5ft on the bouy. As for the winds the latest charts show that the system isn't doing what they though it would. Very Frustrating! Perhaps my ever strong optermistic mind just hope it would hold out. FridayNow it seem the winds are set to be a light SSW over night, building into friday and then swinging to a brisk 15knots westerly by early afternoon. Not ideal by any means but enough for dawn raid. From the WAM chart I' expect to see the swells return overnight as expected from my pre week forcast. The size as yet i'm not so sure about. it could be anything between 4-6ft right now but i'll be up at 6am so i'll post the day report then SaturdayWith the bulk of the swell comming though as hope (6-9ft 8-9sec) sat is looking great except for the wind. Authough WNW for the day its a funny direction to find shelterd spots in. Mouth will obiviously be to exposed. Ceriad might just hold it as long as it doesn't get too strong and its a matter of the usual cable on angelsey. Not big enough for the spots that help us out on W winds when there is a big swell. SundayLooking lik the best day just because the wind forcasts shows a solid NNW wind for the day, pretty strong tho. Ceriad can hold this but now the WAM suggests that period is driopping down to 6sec as the swell direction changes, and the swell down to 5-6ft. Disapointing to say the least. Next week we are returning to choppy low period crapness, Typical. 
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Post by PapaW on Feb 11, 2005 1:04:37 GMT -5
Friday Report: after examining the bouy reports at 5:30 and 6am the winds are whats i'd expected but thismorning the swell is not. its dropped right down to 2.6ft over night with no sign on the outbouys of this build that all the WAM charts are indicating. With the Scrips WAM still not updatng from the 9th and the NOAA WAM chart never being that reliable (it was forcasting 8ft this morning) It seems the forcasting has gone very wrong. Lets hope its a morning blip and there's something this afternoon. I'm at work from 11 so i'll check out whats going on about 10:30 and post it up. I hope somone can get out even if i can't now.  10:30 update: The swell has built slowly, its up to approx 5ft on the bouy now. Spouts mouth pics show a high tide with clean lines comming in up to 4ft expected when the tide begings to drop. Unfortunatly the winds will turn west by mid afternoon. bugger. |
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Post by PapaW on Feb 12, 2005 2:08:25 GMT -5
Sat Report:
Somting That I'll deffo be out on today! Currently reading 9.5ft 9sec onn the bouy with more to come todays got alot of size. We should se an average 5-6ft rolling in down the llyen for the day and around 3-4ft over on th angelsey spots.
Wind today is a bit of an issue. Its curretly West and strong at that. However over the course of the day the expected direction is staying true to forecasts and will swing towards a NW.
Now in relation to where to go... Ceriad can hold this but its going to be VERY big there today. If your not comfident then don't go there. Mouth is too exposed.
Angelsey wise, the usual Cable i a option with hight tide for angelsey being about 11:30m. Abberffraw River mouth is also slightly shelterd from a W/NW and broad beach corner.
Have fun people.
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Post by PapaW on Feb 13, 2005 4:00:46 GMT -5
Sunday Report
WEll, yesterday was very impressive, I underestimated the size tht was comming in at ceriad, by about 9-10am the wedges were peeking well above 8ft, Stupidly steep and fast, Loving it. Some of the Kegs were truly a sight to see! Very clean considering, nice and sunny too!. Unfortunaty after about 11am winds had picked up a little more and of course the tide had dropped below the main bank but it was a fantastic session. bboard being the choice tool of course!
As for today, The winds are slowly turing further north. pretty much NNW right now and forcast for due north by the end of the day.
Size wise the swell has actually INcreased rather than the forecasted drop in swell hight. currently reading 12.5ft @ 7secs. I'm expecting this to drop at some point today. Accoding to the charts this should average out at about 8-9ft for the day so I'd expect to see a good 4+ft rolling in at angelsey on the high tide (approx 1:30pm) and of course in this wind the mouth is too exposed but it might just hold a wave as the winds are cross shore. I'd expect 6ft+ plus there.
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Post by PapaW on Feb 14, 2005 5:19:17 GMT -5
Monday onwards...
only a brief report tody causei've got to be doing some work!
We've got a pretty pants week ahead of us now as the winds have pushed the remaining swell away. Current wind & swell direction is NNW and so won't be amountng to much on any of the breaks. Its somthing I forgot to take into account on Sunday when estmating size. Ceriad turned out an average 2-3ft with 4-5ft wedges but the wind by 11am was so strong off shore it was painfull to be in the water with the spray.
So basically, nothing really on the horizon swell wise right now. Will update midweek.
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Post by PapaW on Feb 16, 2005 4:52:56 GMT -5
Forecast blurb...Hey people, Well as I said this week so far has been pants. All because of a High Pressure that developed after the last system passed by. The Weekend ofcourse saw galeforce NNW winds, one of the few times the offshore wind is TOO strong! Banck to the high pressure. Unfortunatle current chart predictions show this system being very stubborn and its not movning. Again as a result any approaching lows are being shifted north of Ireland. Unlike with the previous system that was big enough to push by the high and peoduce the swells we saw last week, the current system isn't quite as strong it seems. And so it leads me to say that we're very unlikly to see anything for ateast 4-5days. and this is why i'm going to have to leave the report open right now. But of course I can't leave you in dispare, there is a slim chance of the local winds which are focated to blow in strong again by Sat. Its a NNW wind again and will wip up alot of local wind swell. It does look like it wil be ridable but its gong to be very messy and guttless. Its set to be around fo the weekend so if your desperate thats a possibility. East coast is looking sweet today but its dropping off fast there and looking flat for the weekend. See my sponging pal Chris's aka kendonaga's NE forcast. --> magicseaweed.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=1849
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